ارزیابی ریسک خشکسالی استان اصفهان

Drought is a one of the most important natural disasters that have high socio-economic and environmental impacts. However, drought is more than a physical phenomenon or natural event. Its impact results from the relation between a natural event and demands on the water supply, and it is often exacerbated by human activities. The traditional approach to drought management has been reactive, relying on crisis management. Due to the drawbacks of crisis management, employing proper risk management techniques has been suggested. In order to move from crisis management to risk management, in this study, risk of drought in Isfahan province was evaluated. Drought hazard index and vulnerability index are components of the drought risk management. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used as the index of drought hazard. For the calculation of SPI, the monthly rainfall data in 47 meteorological stations during the period of 1975-2007 were collected. The time series of rainfall data were prepared and for calculation of the standardized precipitation index in a 12 month timescale they were imported to SPI program. Percentage of drought occurrence in each severity was calculated and then the drought index map was obtained. Vulnerability index was calculated through socio-economic indicators (population density and percentage of people involved in agriculture), and physical indicators (available water capacity of soil and land use). Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) technique was applied for combination of vulnerability indicators. To assign weights to the criteria, an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used. After providing the maps, fuzzy membership functions for every criterion were used for their standardization. For the weighting of the criteria, a questionnaire was prepared and criteria comparison was done using the participatory approach by a group of experts. Finally, the drought risk index was calculated by multiplying the drought hazard index and vulnerability index. The results showed that hazard of very severe drought is mainly concentrated in the central part of province. The North and North East of Isfahan province could experience condition of severe drought. South West of Isfahan province is under moderate drought condition compared to the other parts of the province. Map of drought vulnerability index showed that the most vulnerability is in the West, South and North-East of province. Map of drought risk index showed that the Northern Province demonstrated high risk. To reduce the drought risk in Isfahan province, improving monitoring, early warning, increasing environmental awareness, and promoting water resource management practices should be considered.